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In early April, after Donald Trump’s first indictment and arraignment in Manhattan, on charges related to hush-money payments, I argued that subsequent criminal proceedings would depend on perceptions of his political strength. 

In particular, on the perceptions of his political strength from the viewpoint of state and federal prosecutors who were, at the time, still investigating government secrets at Mar-a-Lago, the failed paramilitary takeover of the US government and election interference in Georgia. 

“If he’s politically strong,” I wrote, “the other prosecutors, in Atlanta and Washington, will likely remain as cautious as they have been. They will likely avoid bringing indictments. We might never see accountability.” 

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Since April, Trump has been indicted and arraigned three times, the second on charges related to the theft of government secrets, the third, just this week, on charges related to the J6 insurrection. Each time he’s arraigned, his supporters get thinner in number and more ridiculous.

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But, I said, “Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is investigating Trump’s theft of government secrets and his involvement in the J6 insurrection, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who is investigating Trump’s interference in Georgia’s 2020 vote-count, might smell blood.

“It depends.”

It depended on who showed up for him. 

“Trump might be seen as strong,” I wrote, “if he were capable of mobilizing an army of supporters the way he did before the J6 insurrection. But he might be seen as weak if he can’t.”

If prosecutors sense strength, they might hesitate. If weakness, then they’d probably move ahead. (Fani Willis’s investigation is still ongoing.)

It seems I was right.

They did smell blood. 

Since April, Trump has been indicted and arraigned three times, the second on charges related to the theft of government secrets, the third, just this week, on charges related to the J6 insurrection. Each time he’s arraigned, his supporters get thinner in number and more ridiculous.

The weaker Trump is, the weaker he becomes.

Here’s Politico’s Andrew Zhang, on the scene of the third arraignment Thursday, in which “a few hundred people with little apparent partisan juice lined the streets waiting for [Trump’s] arrival outside the E. Barrett Prettyman US Courthouse in Washington. A small handful of vocal supporters and protesters were also on hand.” He added:

“The large majority of onlookers seemingly had no idea that Trump had arrived shortly after 3 or had left after he was arraigned, and they did not express any support or opposition. … The subdued scene was fitting for a quiet August day in the capital, a time when Congress — and, along with it, some of Trump’s biggest banner carriers — is out.”

Even Trump’s champions in the Congress didn’t bother showing.

I don’t want to make too much of this, but this pattern – in which the weaker Trump is, the weaker he becomes – has relevance behind law enforcement. It tells us about his status going into the next election. 

Right now, Trump is the front-runner for the GOP nomination. He has been ahead for months. But the more times he’s indicted and arraigned, the more times his strength seems to take a hit. Domenico Montanaro called this “the pile-on effect.” He said it’s starting to show up in polls. 

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“Republicans and Republican-leaning independents saying they believe Trump has done ‘nothing wrong’ dropped 9 points in the last month, from 50 percent to 41 percent,” he said. “Trump also dropped 6 points in support with that same group when asked whether they were more likely to support Trump or another candidate, if he continues to run for president.” Fifty-one percent “of respondents overall said they think Trump did something illegal, including 52 percent of independents.”

Even so, Montanaro went on to say, “a solid majority — 58 percent — continue to say they would support Trump as their standard-bearer, so more polling and time would be necessary to see if this is a trend, if it continues and if it has a real effect on his chances in the GOP primary.” (This poll was conducted in late July, before Trump’s third indictment.)

The Times released new polling from Iowa in which Trump is ahead of his closest rival (Ron DeSantis) by 24 points but behind his own national numbers by 10 points. According to the Times, Trump “has the support of 44 percent of Iowans polled, 10 percentage points lower than the commanding position he holds with Republicans nationwide.” (This poll was also conducted in late July, before Trump’s third indictment.)

Grain of salt. Polls often misinform as much as they inform.

But these new surveys seem to suggest that I’m onto something here when I say that the weaker Trump is, the weaker he becomes.

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