October 23, 2024 | Reading Time: 5 minutes
Some Republican voters fear revenge by ‘the Trump people’
And other reasons to be hopeful.
I told you Monday that Donald Trump’s dementia is this election’s October “surprise,” but I’m starting to think there’s more than one “shocker.” Another is greater awareness of his economic policies being insane. Another is that he’s kinda, sorta, no actually, for real, a fascist.
I’ll get to those later. Right now, I want to focus on something I don’t usually focus on – optimism. Though Trump is the most dangerous threat to democracy in my lifetime, I can’t help feeling hopeful.
Yes, I know. There’s 2016 to consider. But 2024 isn’t 2016. A lot has changed, but the most important thing has not: Trump himself. He’s running the same campaign that he ran back then and in 2020. The only change in him has been that he’s gotten worse in terms of his politics (he’s more fascist) and his fitness (he’s more demented).
There’s nothing about Kamala Harris that anyone would say is “centrist” in the usual sense of that word. Yet everything about the vice president feels like she’s standing at the dead-center of American politics. Her rhetoric, her policies and her campaign strategies all reflect someone who speaks for a consensus that has emerged.
Meanwhile, the ground beneath his feet has shifted dramatically. There’s the impact of Dobbs to think about, of course. There’s also the J6 insurrection and the covid pandemic. But perhaps more important, and in reaction to those things, is the transformation of the Democratic Party since 2016. That can be seen best in its nominee.
There’s nothing about Kamala Harris that anyone would say is “centrist” in the usual sense of that word. Yet everything about the vice president feels like she’s standing at the dead-center of American politics. Her rhetoric, her policies and her campaign strategies all reflect someone who speaks for a consensus that has emerged.
“We’re gonna be okay”
I’m going to leave it there for now. Today, I want to bring your attention to the thinking of Patrick Dillon. He was an aide in the Obama White House. On Monday, he posted a piece expressing a similar kind of hopefulness. It’s titled “We’re Gonna Be Okay.”
The bottomline, Dillon said, is Kamala Harris “will win and outperform the polls.” He added: “Trump will be rejected, as he has been in every election since he first became president – 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023.”
After the election, Dillon said, we will:
- See the Trump campaign’s “relentless focus on anti-trans ads” was “an epic strategic blunder, in addition to unforgivably morally repugnant,” and that “the supposedly disciplined, well-planned campaign to beat Joe Biden never quite found its footing ever again once the candidate changed.”
- Remember “his one and only, and very close, win in 2016 came when he was, despite controversy, new and fresh and funny (to his people at least – and no small amount of journalists.)”
- See “what’s been staring us in the face since 2022: Dobbs was a political earthquake, with aftershocks still reverberating out. It wasn’t just digested and processed in 2022 and now behind us.”
- Realize that a polling error, if there is one, favored Harris’ campaign more than Trump’s after “eight years of pollsters obsessively focused on how to not miss Trump supporters.”
- See that Trump’s support among Black voters, voters of color and young voters was, while real, “meaningfully overstated in polling for a variety of reasons, including that these groups are hard and getting harder both to poll and to turn out.”
- Understand that the floor for the GOP generally in the suburbs and among college-educated voters is “lower than we imagined.”
- See that Elon Musk’s “almost comically late and slapdash, make-it-up-as-we-go-along, build-the-plane-in-the-air field effort” failed to turn out necessary “low-propensity voters.”
- Realize that the billionaires were “substantially outclassed by the massive, well-trained and targeted first-Biden now-Harris field operation that has been building on the ground all year.”
- And realize that “the rush to analyze early vote returns,” and panicking about them, was “off base because 2024 is not like 2022 is not like 2020.” Winning still requires taking a “number of what will initially look at first like votes for the other team.”
A history-making coalition
Magdi Jacobs was also feeling buoyant. In a new thread, the Editorial Board contributor said the Washington press corps is missing a great story amid its misplaced focus on the horserace: The Democratic coalition under Harris is “remarkably cohesive and laser-focused.”
“Kamala Harris is running a strategically masterful campaign, one that I believe is of historical importance,” Magdi said. “The coalition is diverse, both politically and socially, yet it is also incredibly cohesive.”
Magdi said Harris is a Black Indian-American woman who is leading a new coalition in a fight against American fascism. Stunningly, Magdi said, this has “not involved triangulation anywhere except rhetorically.”
Magdi’s other points:
- “Liz Cheney and other Republicans who are campaigning for Harris have not asked for policy changes or rhetorical shifts. Abortion rights and LGBTQ rights have not been sacrificed, nor have people of color been thrown under the bus. This is to the credit of many, including both Harris and Cheney.”
- “Democratic voters – when we’re able to move past depression and panic – are also staying strong. We’re calling out propaganda like never before. Yes, the online ‘left’ is attacking us, as is [Green Party presidential candidate] Jill Stein, but they are no longer attacking us from within, as they did in 2016.”
- “The online left (not AOC [New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez], et al.) has been functionally cut off for the time-being. They are causing problems, but not within the coalition, as they did, again, in 2016, as well as in 2020.”
- The press corps is “focused on bringing Harris down to Trump’s level to create false equivalency,” but Harris is “running a cohesive Democratic campaign, with Republicans by her side.”
- “Harris, as a Black Indian-American woman, has been able to center herself … as a leader. Her surrogates are functioning as a flanking cavalry. The surrogates are the ones addressing bias related to race and gender. This gives Harris a cleanliness.’”
- “She can stand apart from the attacks because the surrogates – the cavalry – are flanking her. … Republicans like Cheney have made the choice to join this cavalry without concessions, which is to Harris’s great credit as a leader. It is also, as hard as it may be for some of us, of great credit to these Republicans.
- What are Democratic voters going to do as part of “this historic coalition? Leaders in the cavalry – from Barack Obama to the Cheneys – are out there building a permission structure to vote for Harris.” How are we, as voters, “going to join the fight?”
Fear of being purged
Finally, this video.
In it, Republican farmers from Pennsylvania, a married couple, explain why they are supporting the Democratic nominee. At the root of their commentary is fear. Republicans are scared of other Republicans.
When asked by a Fox digital news reporter if they are hearing similar sentiments from other Republican voters, Kristina Lange said:
“I see that they are on the same page as we are. They are approaching us and telling us, ‘We’re behind you.’ They are thanking us for what we’re doing. … They’re thanking us for being brave, because many people are afraid to speak out against Trump, because of revenge.”
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Reporter to husband Bob Lange: “After this election is over, regardless of who wins, do you see yourself going back to the Republicans?”
Bob: “I’m assuming that Trump will not win. In my gut feeling, I think Kamala Harris is going to win significantly, because I think a lot of Republicans are scared of retribution and repercussions from the Trump people. And so when they get in to vote, I think a lot of Republicans are going to vote for Harris just for the sake of democracy. They may not like to do that, but the alternative is much, much worse.”
But then Bob takes another step, affirming what Magdi said about some Republicans demanding nothing in exchange for their support.
“Everyone says he’s a radical,” Bob said. “She’s left. When you govern, you were brought into the middle. You have to have consensus on both sides. … There’s checks and balances. She will be a fine leader. I have no doubt. She’s young. She’s energetic. She’s positive. Go forward.
“You cannot go back.”
John Stoehr is the editor of the Editorial Board. He writes the daily edition. Find him @johnastoehr.
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