It’s time for me to speak plainly about what I think are the chances of Kamala Harris defeating Donald Trump. In July, I said that Joe Biden’s decision to drop out was a mistake, but hopefully not a fatal one. It’s been about three months since then. I feel like I owe you a follow-up. 

I think the vice president can do it. Yes, there are many, many caveats, but I think she can. I don’t base this on polling, because I don’t think most of the polling is reliable. I base it on three big-picture things.

The unity, the economy and the bullshit.

The unity
Kamala Harris has united the Democrats in ways Biden could not. To be sure, there is some softness here and here. Former President Barack Obama said as much yesterday when he chided Black men who may be thinking about not voting or voting for Trump. But that seems to be more of a “bringing Democrats back home” errand than a structural problem. She has unity. Without that, candidates can’t win.

Since the convention, the goal has been expanding the base. She is doing it. Trump isn’t. As other writers have already pointed out, the former president has hit or is going to hit soon his ceiling of support, somewhere in the vicinity of 46-47 percent. That would be where things stood in 2016 and 2020. Harris, however, has room to grow, and she’s growing not just among undecided voters, but among nonvoters.

Harris also has more endorsements from current and former Republican officials than perhaps any Democratic nominee in my lifetime. These are negative and positive. Negative: they have said that they won’t vote for Trump, which means they tacitly endorse Harris. Positive: they have said explicitly that they will vote for her. Republican support has come from all corners and it has amassed so visibly that it’s fair to say Kamala Harris is a bipartisan presidential candidate.

The economy
Every economic indicator is going in the right direction – inflation, employment, wages, GDP growth and on and on. Investors have sent stock markets soaring scores of times this year alone. The US economy is the envy of the world. Biden and Harris have pulled off a miracle. 

The economy is humming along so well that you’d think it wouldn’t be a top issue on voters minds, but it is. I think that’s due to a few things. First, Republicans respondents to opinion polls lie about the economy. Second, Trump and his allies lie about the economy. Third, prices, especially the cost of food and housing, are so high that they give those lies about the economy the appearance of being true. Put all these pieces together and you have an election in which the economy is the top issue even though the economy has rarely been better.

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This is where Harris made a brilliant decision. She isn’t moving from Biden’s transformational accomplishments because she’d be a fool to do that. But she is expanding the scope of his policy vision. Whereas the president was primarily focused on macroeconomics – inflation, employment, growth, etc. – Harris is focused on microeconomics. Biden had to stabilize an economy on the brink during covid. Now that it’s stabilized, Harris wants to bring the cost of living down for all.

When the economy is good, the incumbent usually wins. Biden is no longer running, but the roaring economy is his doing. Harris is telling voters she wants to broaden that success to include bans on price-gouging, middle-class tax breaks, small-business supports and now expanding Medicare to cover long-term home care for seniors. 

And that’s sounding really, really good to lots of people.

The bullshit
No candidate can win without unity. A growing economy is perhaps the most fundamental aspect of any incumbent party’s success. But I can’t help thinking that the biggest reason Kamala Harris is going to pull this off is because so many people are so tired of Trump’s bullshit.

The bullshit is why he messed up America’s response to the covid. It’s why he tried overthrowing a free and fair election. And most recently, it’s why Republican voters are actually turning away help from the government after hurricanes rammed through their communities because they believe lies about Democrats coming to get them.

As Tim Walz said this morning on Twitter: “All Donald Trump and JD Vance know about manufacturing is how to manufacture bullshit.”

It’s endless. It’s everywhere. It’s exhausting. I think most people have had enough. And I think that’s why polling now shows a stable race. 

It’s not that I trust polling. What I trust is Americans’ weariness. Even Trump’s people are bored. Nothing about him has changed in the nine years he’s been in national politics. If anything, his bullshit has gotten worse. It’s like the more he lies, the more people are digging into the fact that they made up their minds about him a long time ago.

Indeed, no matter what has happened – an assassination attempt, a couple of massive hurricanes or Trump’s conspicuous mental deterioration – very little has moved the electorate since around August 1. Growth has mainly been in Harris’ direction. Trump’s has almost peaked. The static nature of the race was enough for one data analyst to joke: “Nothing has happened. We are all insanely bored.”

The conclusion
If Harris loses, it won’t be because of anything she did or didn’t do in terms of policy. It sure-as-hell won’t be because of Trump’s positive attributes, though the press corps will try to find some if he prevails.

No, a defeat for Harris would be due to just enough people believing just enough lies about her and her party in just enough places. 

Alas, a repeat of 2016.

But I think there’s reason to be optimistic. 

The fundamentals are sound.

I hope I’m right.