The Associated Press ran a story Wednesday on behavior that’s become common since Donald Trump entered national politics. It was about how the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party is already laying the groundwork for alleging voter fraud in case he loses in November. 

It’s the Big Lie.

It’s “a pattern for Trump as he steamrolls through the GOP presidential primary and toward an increasingly likely November rematch with Biden,” the AP reported.  “While Trump generally refrains from claiming voter fraud in elections he wins, he spends plenty of time laying the groundwork to cry fraud should he lose an upcoming vote. He’s already been doing that with an eye toward November’s general election.”

The AP goes on to report on possible consequences of the Big Lie – the continued erosion of trust in institutions, threats and intimidation of election workers or perhaps another insurrection if Joe Biden wins. 

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At a gut level, I think Americans like winners. Otherwise, Trump would not work so hard at casting himself as invincible. Winner-likers understand that winners don’t explain themselves. Victory speaks for them. Losers do, however, because defeat demands an explanation.

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Normally, when a story like this comes out, I might offer my thoughts on Trump’s authoritarian tendencies in order to encourage anyone who cares about democracy to do whatever they can do, democratically, to prevent him from having the power to put those tendencies into action. But in light of last week’s caucuses in Iowa and this week’s primary in New Hampshire, I wonder if a different perspective is worth exploring. 

I wonder if Trump, with all this talk about how he can’t lose, because he’s a winner, but if he does lose, it’s because someone cheated – I wonder if he’s inadvertently sending a message to GOP voters. He’s not saying this. (He’d never say this!) But they might be hearing this:

“I know I can’t win.”

There are a million reasons to sound the alarm about the Big Lie, foremost that in the event of Trump’s defeat, which I think is forthcoming, we can reasonably expect a repeat of J6, only worse. Trump is going to lie no matter what. His most nihilist supporters will lash out violently no matter what. But I’m not talking about that.

I’m talking about what the Big Lie is. At its most elemental level, it’s an explanation. I think we may have lost sight of that. We have a million reasons to be scared, but in the process of being scared, we may have overlooked what he’s doing. Trump isn’t just lying. He’s explaining, and the thing about explaining is that winners don’t do that. They win. Losers do explain, however, and they sometimes do it before losing.

The Big Lie communicates this: I know I can’t win, otherwise, I wouldn’t be explaining why I’m about to lose. That message is subliminal. It’s hard to hear above the din of lies and paranoia. But I wonder if at least some would-be supporters are hearing it. That could explain why, though he won Iowa and New Hampshire, turnout was soft. 

For the Big Lie to succeed, electorally, there must be enough people who believe, or who can be made to believe through propaganda, that the current system by which candidates compete is so corrupt that there’s no chance of Trump winning. As the AP story reminded me, a lot of people fit that profile. Indeed, most call themselves Republicans. 

But there are plenty of people who do not believe, and who cannot be made to believe through propaganda (because they are not locked into the rightwing media apparatus), that the current system is that corrupt. Their worldview is deeply rooted in basic faith in institutions. I would take these people to be independent and moderate voters, many of whom may dislike the Democrats but absolutely hate Donald Trump.

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At the same time, there are plenty of people who do not want to support someone whom they believe is going to lose. This is a hunch. If there’s data supporting it, please send it along. But at a gut level, I think Americans like winners. Otherwise, Trump would not work so hard at casting himself as invincible, even inevitable. Winner-likers understand, I think, that winners don’t explain themselves. Victory speaks for them. Losers do, however, because defeat always demands an explanation. 

That brings me to last week’s caucuses and this week’s primary.

Trump won 51 percent of the vote in Iowa. He won 54 percent in New Hampshire. A lot of GOP voters didn’t turn out. A lot wanted someone else. Maybe they don’t like him anymore. Maybe they doubt his ability to survive his criminal trials. Whatever the case, they found reasons to stay home or support Nikki Haley, say, and I’m suggesting that one of those is Trump saying without meaning to that he knows he can’t win. 

Time will time, but the Big Lie could be backfiring. (In terms of political violence and antidemocratic politics, it’s doing what it was designed to do.) It may be suppressing turnout among supporters who have come to believe that there’s no point in even hoping for victory. (Ron DeSantis already identified his “enthusiasm problem.”) It may be solidifying opposition among people who, for one thing, fear the destruction of the constitutional order or, for another, see no point in voting for a man who broadcasts in advance that he knows he can’t win. 

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