A quick programming note: I took off the first half of the week to celebrate Christmas. I’ll take off some of next week, too. In the meantime, here’s today’s edition. Politics never stops, even this time of year! Please enjoy and share, and thanks for supporting the Editorial Board. I’m so grateful that you’re here! –JS

Recently, I was telling you about a pet theory of mine – that most people, most of the time, are not prepared to believe that Donald Trump is going to be the GOP’s nominee. The thought of a second term is too dreadful to think about. So a lot of people have decided not to. Anyway, there are still alternatives around! Maybe GOP voters will instead go with Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. The holidays aren’t over! There’s still time to hope.

A consequence of so many people deciding not to think about Trump is that Joe Biden is being seen in a vacuum. It’s as if, a year from now, Biden will be assessed solely on his job performance. In reality, voters will choose between two candidates. To a lot of people, Biden seems like a less-than-ideal option, and maybe he is! But standing next to Trump, he’s going to seem like a reasonable, sane and good choice.

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At some point in the future, we will look back at this moment to see that Trump’s weakness should have been obvious, but wasn’t, because most people, most of the time, didn’t want to think about the dreadful idea of a second Trump term.

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Another consequence of Joe Biden being seen in a vacuum is this: Donald Trump seems much stronger than he really is. If a lot of people just don’t want to think about him, and I suspect that that’s the case for the time being, that gives people who do want to think about it all the room they need. And because Trump is talking only to people who want to think about him, and not to people who don’t, he can say virtually anything without worrying about ever being challenged too hard. 

The result is this: He’s going deeper and deeper into dictator territory. The deeper he goes, the scarier he seems. The scarier he seems, the stronger he seems – which is why, when you combine this with Biden’s soft polling numbers, some have grown so alarmed that they’ve called on the president to step aside and let another Democrat give it a go.

The president shouldn’t step aside, and isn’t (thank God), because he understands what’s about to happen – most people, most of the time, will soon see that Trump really is going to be the GOP’s presidential nominee. They will probably see this reality by the end of March, maybe sooner. Once they do, all the polling that shows weakness on Biden’s part is going to turn around. That turnaround will reveal how strong Biden is. Conversely, once it’s clear that a second term for Donald Trump really could happen, it will be revealed just how weak he is.

Which brings me to another pet theory – that at some point in the future, we will look back at this moment to see that Trump’s weakness should have been obvious, but wasn’t, because most people, most of the time, didn’t want to think about the dreadful idea of a second Trump term. And it should have been obvious for a simple reason – he keeps telling us how weak he is. The man can’t stop talking about it!

If you’re in the tank, you already believe that the 2020 election was stolen. You already believe Joe Biden is a villain. You already believe a galaxy of things that can’t exist outside your social circles. There is no argument. These, for you, are just facts. There is no evidence available in this world that could possibly complicate what you think you know.

To people in the tank, Trump’s endless complaining about how he didn’t really lose the election doesn’t seem like complaining at all. Instead, it seems like an affirmation of faith. He said he really won. The faithful believe him. Then their faith is affirmed with each repetition of the lie – onward it goes, a fully closed circuit that no fact can penetrate. 

But to people who are not in the tank, which is to say, to people who are not immune to facts, evidence and reason – which is to say, to most people, most of the time – Trump’s endless complaining sounds like endless complaining. It doesn’t sound like an article of faith. He doesn’t sound like a hero of the republic. He sounds like a man who wants revenge for getting beat. In other words, he sounds like a putz. 

That’s weakness. 

And every time he complains about losing, he reveals it. 

But weakness is hard to see, perhaps impossible, when so many people don’t want to think about him, and when so many people are not prepared to believe that he’s going to be the GOP’s nominee. But by the end of March, maybe sooner, they will. Once that stage of the election is over, the next will be exploiting what should have been obvious.

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