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Ron DeSantis wants his party to think it faces a choice between Donald Trump and Not-Donald Trump (meaning him). “No matter how much the media and DC elites try to destroy Ron DeSantis,” his spokesman said, “they can’t change the fact that this is a two-man race for the nomination.”

But that’s not what new numbers show. Philip Bump, looking at polling by Fox Business, found that, in addition to Trump being ahead by a mile of the other Republican candidates, runners-up included DeSantis about as much as they included anyone not named Donald Trump.

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There’s no room for a Not-Donald Trump. There’s no room for Donald Trump II. But if he can’t be Donald Trump II, and he can’t be Not-Donald Trump, what can DeSantis be? The answer is a GOP presidential candidate who doesn’t understand his own party, but keeps insisting that he does to his own detriment.

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In Iowa and South Carolina, “Trump leads the next-closest candidate by at least 30 percentage points,” he said. “In each state, DeSantis is in a statistical tie for that second-place position. In Iowa, he gets 16 percent of support compared with 11 percent for Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). In South Carolina, he gets 13 percent vs. 14 percent for the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley. (Scott gets 10 percent there.)” He added:

“The reason the DeSantis campaign spokesman is so insistent that the governor and Trump are the only two viable candidates is to reinforce that those interested in blocking Trump’s path to the nomination have nowhere else to go. But voters in Iowa and South Carolina — who will help set the field early next year — don’t view DeSantis that way.”

The DeSantis campaign seems to be doing more than spinning the numbers. It’s doubling down on the premise of his campaign, which is that DeSantis is just like Trump but without the baggage – two impeachments, two (maybe three) indictments, and so on. That argument was always dubious but it’s getting worse. Republicans don’t support Trump in spite of the baggage. They support him because of it. 

Robert Franklin, professor of moral leadership at Emory University’s Candler School of Theology, told the AP recently that “Trump benefits from a perception among some of his followers that he is suffering on their behalf.” “The more he complains of persecution, the more people dig in to support him, and for a few, fight for him and make personal sacrifices (of money and freedom) for his advancement,” Franklin said.

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The Republican nomination is therefore a situation in which everything begins and ends with Donald Trump. There’s no room for a Not-Donald Trump. There’s no room for Donald Trump II. But if he can’t be Donald Trump II, and he can’t be Not-Donald Trump, what can DeSantis be? The answer is a GOP presidential candidate who doesn’t understand his own party, but keeps insisting that he does to his own detriment.

Think about it.

DeSantis doesn’t have to run. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley do. Their odds are long, but now, after serving under Trump, is their only chance. DeSantis, however, is still in office. Unlike Tim Scott, he runs things as Florida’s popular second-term governor. He could wait for the next cycle when there isn’t also a Democratic incumbency to overcome.

But he’s not waiting, and I don’t think it’s about too much ambition. It’s about not enough prudence. He seems to believe, or has allowed himself to be convinced to believe, that there’s an appetite for a Donald Trump who is not Donald Trump when there can be only one. In other words, he seems to believe the hype instead of the reality on which the hype is based. He’s losing to Donald Trump, because he’s bad at this.

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You could say, well, why shouldn’t he run? 

Indeed, lots of ambitious people run with every expectation of losing but in doing so, raise their profiles enough to be better positioned the next time. I don’t think that’s going to work in a situation in which everything begins and ends with Donald Trump. There are no runners-up. There’s only the winner, Trump, and the carnage in his wake. 

DeSantis could stop compounding the humiliation that will soon consume him, as it has everyone ever associated with Donald Trump. Instead, he’s doubling down on the idea that “this is a two-man race for the nomination” and that Republicans on the fence “have nowhere else to go.” They have nowhere else to go, but not for the reasons DeSantis thinks. There’s no Donald Trump II. There’s no Not-Donald Trump. 

There’s only Donald Trump.

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